![Aswath Damodaran](/img/default-banner.jpg)
- Видео 1 238
- Просмотров 25 353 539
Aswath Damodaran
США
Добавлен 5 сен 2012
I teach corporate finance, valuation and investment philosophies at the Stern School of Business at New York University. I have online versions of all three courses here, as well as other finance-related videos.
1. The Corporate Finance Online playlist has an introductory video and 36 sessions that cover all of corporate finance (at least as I see it).
2. The Valuation playlist has 25 sessions that cover valuation approaches, issues and questions.
3. The Investment Philosophies playlist has sessions that cover different investment philosophies.
4. The Accounting and Statistics playlists reflect my quirky and unorthodox introductions to two disciplines that are critical to my valuation and corporate finance classes.
5. The Blog Posts playlist has sessions that go wit my blog posts and reflect my standing as a dabbler, rather than expert, in all things finance-related.
If you need the supporting material for any of the classes, check the links below.
1. The Corporate Finance Online playlist has an introductory video and 36 sessions that cover all of corporate finance (at least as I see it).
2. The Valuation playlist has 25 sessions that cover valuation approaches, issues and questions.
3. The Investment Philosophies playlist has sessions that cover different investment philosophies.
4. The Accounting and Statistics playlists reflect my quirky and unorthodox introductions to two disciplines that are critical to my valuation and corporate finance classes.
5. The Blog Posts playlist has sessions that go wit my blog posts and reflect my standing as a dabbler, rather than expert, in all things finance-related.
If you need the supporting material for any of the classes, check the links below.
Beat you Bot: Building your moat against AI!
As the AI buzz has carried markets and unsettled businesses, with the threat of disruption, the threat of personal disruption also looks. We are being told that AI is coming for our jobs, and for me, that threat became real when I learned of a bot in my name that had read and listened everything that I have ever written or said. In this session, I look at where the AI threat is greatest (mechanical, rule-driven and objective) and what we can do to keep the threat at bay - broaden our horizons, strengthen reasoning skills, work on our weak sides and let our minds wander.
Blog post: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/08/beat-your-bot-building-your-moat.html
P.S: During the session, I mentione...
Blog post: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/08/beat-your-bot-building-your-moat.html
P.S: During the session, I mentione...
Просмотров: 8 806
Видео
Chapter/Session 16: Investing in Middle Age
Просмотров 7 тыс.21 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at value investing, at least as practiced by many in the space, as focused primarily on middle aged firms, trading at attractive prices. While value investing has an appealing mix of story and numbers, I look at the returns earned by value investors and find little cause for celebration. Active value mutual funds underperform value index funds by mor...
Chapter/Session 17: Investing in Decline
Просмотров 2,6 тыс.21 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at the investor groups, especially private equity and activists, who try to make their money by targeting companies in decline. In some cases, they do so, because the price is attractive, and in others, because they think that breaking up or even liquidating the firm can deliver more value than continuing as going concerns. Slides: pages.stern.nyu.ed...
Chapter/Session 18: Managing across the life cycle
Просмотров 75721 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at what top managers in businesses do, and how the skill sets annd mindsets you need in these managers will change as a company moves through the life cycle, turning on its head the notion that there is one prototype for a "great CEO". I also argue that a mismatch between a firm and its top management can be value-destructive, and that the odds of th...
Chapter/Session 19: Aging with grace!
Просмотров 90121 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at the choices that managers face when put in charge of declining firms, starting with acceptance (where they accept aging and act accordingly) and why management fights that path so much. I also look at the more alluring paths of revamps and rebirths, with examples of success, but with cautionary notes on difficulties on those paths. Slides: pages.s...
Chapter/Session 20: Lessons for the Road
Просмотров 65621 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I wrap up by looking at lessons for managers, as companies make their way through the life cycle, as well as for investors, navigating the same path. I end with suggestions for regulators and policy makers on how to approach disclosure and corporate governance for firms at different stages in the life cycle. Slides: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/CLC...
Chapter/Session 15: Investing in Youth
Просмотров 1,6 тыс.21 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at the investment philosophies (and strategies) most focused on young and high growth companies, starting with venture capital and then moving on to public market growth investors (and traders). I argue that to be successful with companies at this stage in the life cycle, you need to be a good judge of both narratives (company stories) as well as peo...
Chapter/Session 14: Investment Philosophies 101
Просмотров 1,3 тыс.21 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I start by describing an investment philosophy as a set of beliefs about market behavior and misbehavior which translate into market mistakes that you try to exploit as an investor, and go on to contrast investment philosophies that are odds with each other - value versus growth investing, momentum versus reversal trading, market timing versus stock selecti...
Chapter/Session 13: Valuing and Pricing Declining Firms
Просмотров 43521 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I argue that valuing declining firms is daunting, since the value you attach to a business is very much a function of whether you believe that the management of these firms is in denial, acceptance or actively working towards a rebirth. I also look at pricing a firm with declining revenues and margins under pressure is different, with both healthy and decli...
Chapter/Session 12: Valuing Mature Firms
Просмотров 57321 час назад
Session Description: With long financial histories, and settled business models, firms in their mature phase should be easiest to value and price. That said, in this session, I look at the questions of how best to deal with the effects of changing the management of a mature firm, as well as imminent disruption of the core business. I argue that all mature firms can be valued for the status quo ...
Chapter/Session 11: Valuing Growth Firms
Просмотров 67821 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I examine the big questions involved in valuing high-growth firms, with established business models, but where the key question becomes one of whether and if yes, how much, a firm with strong past growth can continue to grow. I also look at pricing high growth firms, where the key difference to control for is in expected growth. Slides: pages.stern.nyu.edu/...
Chapter/Session 10: Valuing and Pricing Start-ups and Young High Growth Firms
Просмотров 56121 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I look at why the absence of historical data, the lack of a working business model and the uncertainty about survival and success make valuation more challenging at young firms and start-ups, and why the payoff to making your best estimates, in the face of these challenges, is so large. I then examine the process of valuing and pricing a young firm or start...
Chapter/Session 9: Valuation and Pricing 101
Просмотров 60821 час назад
Session Description: In this session, I start by contrasting valuation, where we attach a number to an asset, based upon its cashflows, growth and risk, and pricing, where we decide how much to pay, based on what other investors are paying for similar assets. In the context of intrinsic valuation, I look at the drivers of value and then examine why the importance of the drivers can change as co...
Chapter/Session 7: Business Financing across the Life Cycle
Просмотров 54021 час назад
Session Description: There are only two ways that a business can be fund itself - your own money (equity) and borrowed money (debt). In this session, I look at the tradeoffs - illusory, financial and friction-driven - that drive the trade off between debt and equity, and how it plays out across the life cycle. I move on to to look at the right type of debt a firm, as one that matches its assets...
Chapter/Session 8: Cash Return (Dividends) across the Life Cycle
Просмотров 48521 час назад
Session Description: If dividends represent residual cash flows, i.e., cash flows left over after every other need (taxes, reinvestment, debt payments) have been met, it stands to reason that the cash returned by a firm should reflect where it is in the life cycle. In this session, in addition to looking at cash return (potential and actual) as companies age, I also look at how the choice betwe...
Chapter/Session 6: Business Investing across the Life Cycle
Просмотров 72421 час назад
Chapter/Session 6: Business Investing across the Life Cycle
Chapter/Session 5: Corporate Finance 101
Просмотров 87021 час назад
Chapter/Session 5: Corporate Finance 101
Chapter/Session 4: Corporate Life Cycle - Transitions
Просмотров 94121 час назад
Chapter/Session 4: Corporate Life Cycle - Transitions
Chapter/Session 3: The Corporate Life Cycle - Measures and Determinants
Просмотров 1,9 тыс.21 час назад
Chapter/Session 3: The Corporate Life Cycle - Measures and Determinants
Chapter/Session 2: The Corporate Life Cycle - Basics
Просмотров 2,4 тыс.21 час назад
Chapter/Session 2: The Corporate Life Cycle - Basics
Chapter/Session 1: The Search for a Unifying Theory
Просмотров 5 тыс.21 час назад
Chapter/Session 1: The Search for a Unifying Theory
The Corporate Life Cycle: The Key Ideas
Просмотров 6 тыс.День назад
The Corporate Life Cycle: The Key Ideas
The Corporate Life Cycle: Implications for Managing and Investing
Просмотров 21 тыс.Месяц назад
The Corporate Life Cycle: Implications for Managing and Investing
Session 28 (Val Undergrad): Closing the sale!
Просмотров 13 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 28 (Val Undergrad): Closing the sale!
Session 26 (Val MBAs): The Grand Finale!
Просмотров 5 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 26 (Val MBAs): The Grand Finale!
Session 26: The Fat Lady is Singing!
Просмотров 4,4 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 26: The Fat Lady is Singing!
Session 25 (Val MBAs): Acquisitions (Completed) and Value Enhancements!
Просмотров 4,9 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 25 (Val MBAs): Acquisitions (Completed) and Value Enhancements!
Session 27 (Val Undergrad): Acquisitions Completed and Value Enhancement
Просмотров 2,4 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 27 (Val Undergrad): Acquisitions Completed and Value Enhancement
Session 25: Valuation - The Last Frontier!
Просмотров 4,3 тыс.3 месяца назад
Session 25: Valuation - The Last Frontier!
Fantastic thoughts! Thanks for sharing. I especially agree with the generalist topic and the importance of the empty mind! I can agree that going on a long walk in the forest and leaving my phone at home always brings me joy and new ideas 😊 PS. Confusing Galilei and Newton is proof enough that this video has not been created by an AI
LLMs are general specialists, i.e. they can be specialized in everything, not sure how being superficially knowledgeable of everything can be better. As far as moats, legalities such as patents are already a thing so I don't see it as a far-fetched aspect at all. About biases instead we need to decide whether they're positive or negative but even more importantly whether we're fully aware of them. AIs could help us become fully aware of our biases allowing us to become even better. If you can't beat your enemy, use them!
Your content is a gold mine. Thank you.
No idea why this line always sticks with me "or the most part. I understand that I am too old to exercise without stretching first or eat a heaping plate of cheese fries and not suffer heartburn, but that does not stop me from trying occasionally." TY Professor you are a diamond in the........
Decision trees are a great tool to evade the sunk cost fallacy. Thanks, Professor.
Disagree, I think Building a moat will be futile. I'd rather learn to wield the tool than compete with it. Aside from divine intervention. the difference between principle-based and Mechanically based disciplines seems like a useless distinction. If you think about it, good principles are just programs we run in our brains that result in mechanical reactions and functions for given inputs. does the AI need to have principles if it can functionally replicate the end result better than humans? You cannot have creativity if you do not have a comprehensive connected understanding of the source material. AI does that better than people already, its just a question of how much data we give to it, which is rapidly growing
An apple falling on Galileo's head?..... definitely the Damodaran Bot at work! ;-)
Fantastic reflection! Thank you.
His point about not being able to have an intellectual discussion with "highly educated" specialists outside their expertise seems accurate in my experience as well; moreover, I have noted that it is almost even looked down upon by many such people. "Why would one waste time over that, if it is not a marketable skill?!" ruclips.net/video/JXb7Oq13pjQ/видео.html In this video Harvard graduates are asked to explain why we have seasons, most didn't give a (scientifically valid and even common sense explanation), because they probably never were interested in understanding why. And it is not just Ivy League graduates but most "educated" adult people as I've asked now quite a few the same questions about the seasons, or even why the sunray's UV intensity is higher when the sun is high in the sky. Only a mind that is cluttered with specialized information is able to be obstructed asking this question during and after taking walks at different times of the day and year and not being curious why the heck the earth is warmer at such different times. Try to run this experiment for yourself by asking them questions that an _educated_ Athenian 2300 years ago would have understood or given a more accurate explanation for.
I will be actively waiting for Damodaran bot results. I wonder how it will handle the correction in understandings and assumptions that you openly admit and correct.
Thank you for the insightful video. I would add that bias can arise not only from the computer code inserted by programmers (e.g., the moderation layer) but also from the selection of biased training data used to train the algorithm.
Tks for sharing your great insight. I believe being a storytelling means that one should extend and exercise one's imagination far beyond what AI with existing data can reason or infer. The articulation of one's imagination is how we have E=MC2 from Einstein, E-commerce and cloud computing from Jeff Bezos. As a investor, I think if we can better appreciate and evaluate Start-Up and Young-Growth companies (mentioned in your new Corporate Lifecycle book) that venture into new markets which AI has no existing data to learn from, we should still be leading ahead of AI. PS: It is good to walk with your dog after meal so that you have less glucose spike by using your leg muscle and perhaps exercising your brain power by wandering your ideas. Happy Walking and happy thinking
13:30
well making the apple fall on Galileo was a great way to slow down damodaran bot . It surely is a strategy to think on .
This is one of the best videos that you've posted Prof. A much needed nudge. 🙏
Amazing video and thoughts, Prof. Damodaran! Not sure how much context, macro/micro econ and other generalist expertise you might have embedded in your work would be captured by the bot! I believe your generalist skillsets combined with your curiosity combined with your hunger for learning even at this age is something your bot will never be able to catch up with!
Plot twist. This video was brought to you by AI. Joking aside, thank you Prof. Damodaran for your kind public service in making this valuable video public. You are a great economist and teacher.
can we have a look an the code of damodaran bot ?
thank you for this amazing video Prof. D. This is the highest form of public service that you have done! Takeaways: 1. We need to expand depth and breadth in what ever we do or like to do. 2. Transform into a FULL-STACK VALUE CREATOR, nut just a software developer or a sales guy. The Duomo architect you mentioned went full-stack (in its truest sense) to transform art into an engineering marvel. Opinions: 1. AI bots are not coming after us, they are enabling us to take the next big leap. We need to do that as well and guess what, transforming from an entry level to a senior in a new field has never been easier. 2. Take breaks. Enjoy life. The risk we are worrying hard to account for is pointless if we do not enjoy the rewards of present. Find a balance. Your Sincerely. G
Your take aways and opinions contradict each other.
@@rexiioper6920 why not! Take-aways are what I am leaving with. Opinions are my thoughts on this.
Thank you Proffessor. You made a truck driver think on How to evaluate companies today. Like to learn as I go with hearing.
Thank you, sir. I took Stats 1000 at the University of Pittsburgh in 2005 so I could get into Pharmacy school, certain I would use it very little. 20 years later, I'm no longer a pharmacist but very much an investor, and I DESPERATELY need my statistics! I don't wish to go pay for school again, and I remember some things. This course has been invaluable to me. You are a godsend. I had no knowledge of valuation and very little of Finance before I luckily stumbled upon your webpage. I buy your books, I like and comment every one of your videos I can, and I recommend you to everyone who I know will put in the effort. I do not come from the world of finance, but I am able to navigate it solely because of you, Ben Graham, and a library card. But thank you so much, you've done more for me than you could ever know.
What about going to outer space, all the new technology, there is so many you can't say them all in one sitting. AI is heroes technology. Compare today to super long ago 1950's, life is so much better nowadays.
Thank you so much for this video Professor!
Astounding philosophy and a little bit scary too. Thanks professor.
With Damodaran Bot as your assistant & your brain/intellect power you will do much, much better than you already do. Great time to look forward to this bot & use it to come up with great ideas, story telling as well as teaching methods. Looking forward to this. As always a fantastic thought provoking presentation & thank you very much. As a not so good mathematician I thoroughly enjoyed your last two books & will constantly refer to them in my investing journey. Keep up excellent & very generous work you are doing 🙏🙏🙏
Unbiased. Manager goes to the account and says our numbers don't look good , can you check them . Accountant ,got a number in mind .
Now that you have made this video prof., the bot will know what you are upto 😀
😂
Currently Ai has hallucinations and makes things up. If the Bot does a bad job then it's like NASA in the late 60s saying we will have bases on the moon by 2000. ,or Elons Mars colonies. .
@Ashwath Damodaran: Irrespective of the Damodaran bot beating your best student or failing it doesn't matter, I don't think valuation of companies is logical process with clear defined rules, I agree that there are a host of quantitative measures that you can use to value companies. But valuation is more than just a quantitative measure, I think when you or other great investors value companies and place a bet on them, they look at lot of other facts and information that is very nuanced to their unique insights and I don't know if there will ever be a bot that can replicate you or the other great investors.
I love all your lectures. However comma The urban legend is that it was Newton sitting by the apple tree
LLMs are terrible with numbers, so my guess is that the bot will write a very *believable* story, and its ability to predict the future will be so-so, but it'll translate the story into numbers very poorly.
Thank you Prof.Damodaran for yet another thought provoking presentation. One small clarification - though Galileo hugely contributed to our understanding of Gravity, Sir Newton is credited with propounding the Universal law of gravitation after an apple fell on his head.
Interesting video, filled with nuanced insights, as always. And echo your views on the whole generalist vs specialist topic. Recently, I've consciously been trying to avoid using app-based maps, after my dad pointed out the need for me to improve on spatial awareness. It makes me wonder if our recent ancestors were right about being averse to technology. Interesting times ahead. Wish there was a time machine to glimpse the far-future world at different time intervals. Thank you for the video! Do keep us posted on how the bot performs. Good day!
I just took some time to test out this page and not as impressive as the people who created it claims. I put some stock name and ask to analyze that and basically get some reference of your book about how to analyze that. Perhaps a way to draw people to their page only?
Fantastic video! small note: it was Newton, not Galileo, who is famously linked to the apple falling incident that led to theories concerning gravity.
Yikes. You are right. I meant to say Newton, but Galileo somehow stepped in. My bot would never have made that mistake!
@@AswathDamodaranonValuation: On the contrary, this might be a good strategy to make your bot hallucinate and come up with inaccurate results
That's how I realized that the session was run by a bot. They fed it with Damodaran's data but forgot to load it up with fairy tales about apples and gravity.
For what it's worth, my personal experience/observations with ChatGPT is that it is utterly and dangerously unreliable! You will never know when it will make mistakes and it's mistakes are often silly and/or akin to blunder. As of now, I only see one use case of Gen AI: In cases where it is difficult to find out the answer/solution but at the same time very easy to verify the correctness of the same. I am far bullish on Robots. The mistakes they do are clearly visible to you in real time. As a result there is a much greater ease and scope of focused improvements and fixes. It will rarely happen that a Robot will perform a task incorrectly all the while you are thinking that it has performed it correctly. Sooner or later, it's mistakes are bound to come out in the open.
Oh wow I am looking forward to hear about the Damodaran Bot results. Thanks professor, as always, incredibly insightful. Edit: the need for more Renaissance minds, more generalist in our generation- so powerful.
Relationship status: debating whether to shave my legs or wear pants all winter🐱
Thank you this gave me of lot insights of AI🙏
Oh wow I am looking forward to hear about the Damodaran Bot results. Thanks professor, as always, incredibly insightful. Edit: the need for more Renaissance minds / generalists in our generation- so powerful
The goat has returned
Thank you Professor for sharing this in such a timely manner! Be well.
I have a theory, "US abandon the gold standard in the 1970s" could have a big influence here. it change what "money" means.
Please do not hesitate to share with us soon a new evaluation of a specific company, it is always an enriching experience.
Dear Aswath, I am eternally grateful for your generosity in sharing your wisdom with us. It has shaped us both as investors and as persons. Thank you
I’ve been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading crypto. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
I will advice you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you I think that way your assets are more secure.
I’d recommend viola patterson , her profit is great even when there’s a dip
I've seen a lot of positive reviews about this professional, she must be exceptional for people to talk about her goodness
Please how can someone get to speak with her?
This channel is gold 🥇🪙
Hi Sir, great video. Quick question- How to calculate ROC, when the amount of cash balance is very high and the calculation is leading to a negative number?
what about capital appreciation people expect on Investing in Stock Index
How I can obtain a bloomberg terminal certificate?